Four into two won't go: The AFL's run home
August 14th 2008 02:04
With only three games left in this year's home-and-away season, 2008 has thrown up more twists and turns for fans than a roller coaster ride in a theme park.
No-one expected Geelong to dominate to the extent that they have. Few anticipated that the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn would be able to keep up with the reigning premiers.
And many certainly expected Port Adelaide to still be in the mix come September, as last year's eventual losers to the Cats in the big one.
But the last two spots in this year's finals series is what has people talking the most. With Sydney and North Melbourne fighting over fourth position, and Adelaide only two points behind the Swans and Kangaroos, seventh and eighth position on this year's ladder will be a hard-fought contest.
Four teams have the opportunity to make it, but only two can. Collingwood and St. Kilda currently occupy those two highly-decorated positions at the moment, but Carlton and Brisbane are breathing down their necks, chasing for glory.
After last week, two teams dropped out of the race for September. Richmond were handed a belting at the hands of sixth-placed Adelaide. They now sit a game-and-a-half behind St. Kilda, with only three rounds to go.
Essendon is a further two points back from Richmond, and had they beaten West Coast over at Subiaco, their feint hopes of prominently featuring in this article - and this year's finals series - would have been dealt a severe boost.
But let's take a look at the four teams vying for two spots, and their run home.
Collingwood 7th position - 10 wins, 9 losses 109.78%
Coming up this week for the Magpies is a stern test against Port Adelaide over at AAMI Stadium. Having lost the corresponding fixture earlier this season here in Melbourne, the Pies will want to take some revenge, and the four points.
They have a good record over in Adelaide, winning more games than losing in recent history. They have beaten the Power during the Finals series, but only by a Chris Tarrant goal right at the death.
Port have sent many of their players to get surgery, in readiness for the 2009 season. Many of its senior and star players will be missing, but this is the same team that pushed St. Kilda all the way only a fortnight ago, only to be demolished by Carton a week later.
So, unpredictability comes into the equation. How will they go?
Round 21 sees Collingwood face fourth-placed Sydney, who will want as many wins as possible before going into September. The Swans have not been in the best form of late, but are still in the mix.
Player attrition will be the key for Sydney, as they will get back Michael O'Loughlin before the big month. Adam Goodes returned last week from injury, but Nick Malceski still has to come back.
The other big question mark lies over Barry Hall. He hasn't been the same person he was at the start of the year, and rightly so. His suspensions have 'softened' up his aggression at the ball and the man. Or could it be the lack of quality ball being supplied to him?
Collingwood somehow managed to keep Sydney to under five goals up until three-quarter time in their blockbuster clash earlier this season. They will need another performance like that.
Finally, Fremantle is the last stop for the black and white in this year's home-and-away series. Even though Freo might be sitting in the bottom four, they have been unlucky in certain matches, kicking themselves out of the game in the last quarter.
They are a different side when playing in Perth as compared to the rest of Australia, so it will not be easy for the Magpies. Pavlich has been on fire, and Collingwood will need to keep him quiet.
Many questions will be asked of this Collingwood side. Can they play out the rest of the season without Heath Shaw and Alan Didak? When will Anthony Rocca return to the side, and will he be able to find a place on the team? Can their youngsters hold up mentally, or are they drained?
Can they repeat the heroic feats of season 2007, and push Geelong to within five points in the Preliminary Final? How will Guy McKenna hold up after being selected as the inaugural GC17 coach? Will his mind be elsewhere?
St. Kilda 8th position - 10 wins, 9 losses 100.23%
St. Kilda begin their run home facing Collingwood's round 22 opponents, Fremantle. They have a good record against the Dockers, and will look toward captain Nick Riewoldt to kick another bagful like he did against the earlier in the season.
Freo will also look to exploit their lack of height in defence, with Like McPharlin and Pavlich towering over a small St. Kilda backline.
Adelaide will be a much sterner test for the Saints, as they may be facing the Crows in the finals series. Both teams will want to win this match, taking a psychological boost into September if they are to meet.
The Crows defence will also test out how well Justin Koschitzke, Riewoldt and Stephen Milne can kick at goal. Not only will they follow them like a bad smell, but they will also try to beat them mentally.
Adelaide will also be wanting to win, so that they can keep up the pressure on Sydney and North Melbourne. Fourth spot and a double-chance will be the driving force in wanting to beat the Saints, and Crows' coach Neil Craig will be drumming this point into his players.
Round 22 will see St. Kilda take on Essendon, a team that almost made it, but fell short at the final hurdle. The Bombers will be playing for pride, and the extremely slim chance that they have of making the top eight.
These encounters have always been great games, and a close match is sure to occur. How much will Robert Harvey's potentially last match play on the mind of the St. Kilda players?
Winning the game for a club legend will not only be the major driving factor, but also an appearance in the following week's finals' series. Mad Monday will not want to be celebrated early for a team that has promised so much, and delivered so little.
The Saints were the 2008 NAB pre-season competition winners, and have been written off on many occasions this season. They have proved noble combatants, but have not reached the lofty heights many had expected them to.
With so many high draft picks turning into quality players, it is surprising for many people to see the Saints scrapping it out for one of the final two spots available.
Can St. Kilda get its act together and finally win a premiership after 42 years, and for Harvey?
Brisbane 9th position - 9 wins, 10 losses 100.63%
Brisbane will be coming up against former team-mate Jason Akermanis and his new side, the Western Bulldogs.
This would be best time, as neither team is in great shape leading into the business-end of the year. The Doggies have won one of their last four, and the Lions are in a similar position.
If the Dogs shut down Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, Brisbane will have a tough time in scoring any goals. They have not been known to put through any majors without their big forwards kicking them.
And this will be against a top-three team, which has seemingly gone through the season playing attractive football.
A direct encounter against Carlton will shape the eight dramatically, with the winner of this match putting themselves in a very strong position to make it in one of the two available spots.
This match will be about which midfield can lay their hands on the ball the most, and supply their forwards with some quality ball.
Brown destroyed the Blues earlier in the year, when Simon Black gave him many good passes for him to kick goals. Shutting down those two will be paramount, and getting Judd and Co. to fire.
The Lions may struggle to close Brendan Fevola down, but doing so will go a long way in taking the four points.
Sydney are the last team the Lions will face in the home-and-away season, and it could not be any tougher.
Playing them at the SCG, Sydney have an imposing record. Their players know the ins and outs of the surface, and play well on it.
The Swans will be fighting for fourth position and the double-chance. Losing this will mean that they could possibly finish outside the top four, and play Brisbane again for the second consecutive week.
How much will Brisbane be relying on Brown and Bradshaw to kick their goals? Can the Lions find another player who can kick two or three a match from here on in?
Carlton 10th position - 9 wins, 10 losses 99.28%
Carlton faces the toughest run of all the teams currently fighting for a position. Sitting in 10th position, but having the worst percentage of the four teams puts the most pressure on the bluebaggers.
Facing North Melbourne this week, who are on a winning streak and a fight of their own for fourth will not be an easy task.
North's blend of youth and experience has seen everyone write them off at the start of the season, but upstage them all in the end. And the more pressure they can put on the Swans, could mean securing a double-chance.
There was some controversy raised during the Easter period, when North board member Eugene Arocca called for a Good Friday match between his team and Carlton, shocking the Blues' camp. Carlton basically passed the offer up, costing North some potential money.
They will be fired up, and wanting to prove that they too, can draw a big crowd.
Round 21 will see a trip to the GABBA being made as they take on Brisbane. Carlton has a good record against teams in the hunt for the spots, except against the Lions.
The big question will be asked of their backline, and who will do the jobs against Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw. With no real stars in defence, it will be a difficult assignment in shutting them down.
Fevola will be asked to step up, but as he approaches the magic 100-goal mark, more pressure will be applied to him by the opposition, as they do not want to be the team he kicks it against.
Hawthorn will be the Blues’ final test of character. Having already secured their position on the ladder weeks ago, the Hawks already know who their opposition will be once September comes around.
Their mind may not be focused on their job at hand, but beyond. Lance Franklin will be close, if not over the 100-goal mark, and will chomping at the bit to shine before the finals begin.
Could Hawthorn put in a B-squad and rest some of their big names before the business-end of the season starts?
Will they go hard, like they have all year, and restrict Carlton to a miserly score whilst kick a big one themselves?
It will only be another three weeks until supporters of these four clubs will know their fate for 2008. The roller coaster ride is still going at full-tilt, and when it slows down, all be known.
Which way will it go?
No-one expected Geelong to dominate to the extent that they have. Few anticipated that the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn would be able to keep up with the reigning premiers.
And many certainly expected Port Adelaide to still be in the mix come September, as last year's eventual losers to the Cats in the big one.
But the last two spots in this year's finals series is what has people talking the most. With Sydney and North Melbourne fighting over fourth position, and Adelaide only two points behind the Swans and Kangaroos, seventh and eighth position on this year's ladder will be a hard-fought contest.
Four teams have the opportunity to make it, but only two can. Collingwood and St. Kilda currently occupy those two highly-decorated positions at the moment, but Carlton and Brisbane are breathing down their necks, chasing for glory.
After last week, two teams dropped out of the race for September. Richmond were handed a belting at the hands of sixth-placed Adelaide. They now sit a game-and-a-half behind St. Kilda, with only three rounds to go.
Essendon is a further two points back from Richmond, and had they beaten West Coast over at Subiaco, their feint hopes of prominently featuring in this article - and this year's finals series - would have been dealt a severe boost.
But let's take a look at the four teams vying for two spots, and their run home.
Collingwood 7th position - 10 wins, 9 losses 109.78%
Coming up this week for the Magpies is a stern test against Port Adelaide over at AAMI Stadium. Having lost the corresponding fixture earlier this season here in Melbourne, the Pies will want to take some revenge, and the four points.
They have a good record over in Adelaide, winning more games than losing in recent history. They have beaten the Power during the Finals series, but only by a Chris Tarrant goal right at the death.
Port have sent many of their players to get surgery, in readiness for the 2009 season. Many of its senior and star players will be missing, but this is the same team that pushed St. Kilda all the way only a fortnight ago, only to be demolished by Carton a week later.
So, unpredictability comes into the equation. How will they go?
Round 21 sees Collingwood face fourth-placed Sydney, who will want as many wins as possible before going into September. The Swans have not been in the best form of late, but are still in the mix.
Player attrition will be the key for Sydney, as they will get back Michael O'Loughlin before the big month. Adam Goodes returned last week from injury, but Nick Malceski still has to come back.
The other big question mark lies over Barry Hall. He hasn't been the same person he was at the start of the year, and rightly so. His suspensions have 'softened' up his aggression at the ball and the man. Or could it be the lack of quality ball being supplied to him?
Collingwood somehow managed to keep Sydney to under five goals up until three-quarter time in their blockbuster clash earlier this season. They will need another performance like that.
Finally, Fremantle is the last stop for the black and white in this year's home-and-away series. Even though Freo might be sitting in the bottom four, they have been unlucky in certain matches, kicking themselves out of the game in the last quarter.
They are a different side when playing in Perth as compared to the rest of Australia, so it will not be easy for the Magpies. Pavlich has been on fire, and Collingwood will need to keep him quiet.
Many questions will be asked of this Collingwood side. Can they play out the rest of the season without Heath Shaw and Alan Didak? When will Anthony Rocca return to the side, and will he be able to find a place on the team? Can their youngsters hold up mentally, or are they drained?
Can they repeat the heroic feats of season 2007, and push Geelong to within five points in the Preliminary Final? How will Guy McKenna hold up after being selected as the inaugural GC17 coach? Will his mind be elsewhere?
St. Kilda 8th position - 10 wins, 9 losses 100.23%
St. Kilda begin their run home facing Collingwood's round 22 opponents, Fremantle. They have a good record against the Dockers, and will look toward captain Nick Riewoldt to kick another bagful like he did against the earlier in the season.
Freo will also look to exploit their lack of height in defence, with Like McPharlin and Pavlich towering over a small St. Kilda backline.
Adelaide will be a much sterner test for the Saints, as they may be facing the Crows in the finals series. Both teams will want to win this match, taking a psychological boost into September if they are to meet.
The Crows defence will also test out how well Justin Koschitzke, Riewoldt and Stephen Milne can kick at goal. Not only will they follow them like a bad smell, but they will also try to beat them mentally.
Adelaide will also be wanting to win, so that they can keep up the pressure on Sydney and North Melbourne. Fourth spot and a double-chance will be the driving force in wanting to beat the Saints, and Crows' coach Neil Craig will be drumming this point into his players.
Round 22 will see St. Kilda take on Essendon, a team that almost made it, but fell short at the final hurdle. The Bombers will be playing for pride, and the extremely slim chance that they have of making the top eight.
These encounters have always been great games, and a close match is sure to occur. How much will Robert Harvey's potentially last match play on the mind of the St. Kilda players?
Winning the game for a club legend will not only be the major driving factor, but also an appearance in the following week's finals' series. Mad Monday will not want to be celebrated early for a team that has promised so much, and delivered so little.
The Saints were the 2008 NAB pre-season competition winners, and have been written off on many occasions this season. They have proved noble combatants, but have not reached the lofty heights many had expected them to.
With so many high draft picks turning into quality players, it is surprising for many people to see the Saints scrapping it out for one of the final two spots available.
Can St. Kilda get its act together and finally win a premiership after 42 years, and for Harvey?
Brisbane 9th position - 9 wins, 10 losses 100.63%
Brisbane will be coming up against former team-mate Jason Akermanis and his new side, the Western Bulldogs.
This would be best time, as neither team is in great shape leading into the business-end of the year. The Doggies have won one of their last four, and the Lions are in a similar position.
If the Dogs shut down Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, Brisbane will have a tough time in scoring any goals. They have not been known to put through any majors without their big forwards kicking them.
And this will be against a top-three team, which has seemingly gone through the season playing attractive football.
A direct encounter against Carlton will shape the eight dramatically, with the winner of this match putting themselves in a very strong position to make it in one of the two available spots.
This match will be about which midfield can lay their hands on the ball the most, and supply their forwards with some quality ball.
Brown destroyed the Blues earlier in the year, when Simon Black gave him many good passes for him to kick goals. Shutting down those two will be paramount, and getting Judd and Co. to fire.
The Lions may struggle to close Brendan Fevola down, but doing so will go a long way in taking the four points.
Sydney are the last team the Lions will face in the home-and-away season, and it could not be any tougher.
Playing them at the SCG, Sydney have an imposing record. Their players know the ins and outs of the surface, and play well on it.
The Swans will be fighting for fourth position and the double-chance. Losing this will mean that they could possibly finish outside the top four, and play Brisbane again for the second consecutive week.
How much will Brisbane be relying on Brown and Bradshaw to kick their goals? Can the Lions find another player who can kick two or three a match from here on in?
Carlton 10th position - 9 wins, 10 losses 99.28%
Carlton faces the toughest run of all the teams currently fighting for a position. Sitting in 10th position, but having the worst percentage of the four teams puts the most pressure on the bluebaggers.
Facing North Melbourne this week, who are on a winning streak and a fight of their own for fourth will not be an easy task.
North's blend of youth and experience has seen everyone write them off at the start of the season, but upstage them all in the end. And the more pressure they can put on the Swans, could mean securing a double-chance.
There was some controversy raised during the Easter period, when North board member Eugene Arocca called for a Good Friday match between his team and Carlton, shocking the Blues' camp. Carlton basically passed the offer up, costing North some potential money.
They will be fired up, and wanting to prove that they too, can draw a big crowd.
Round 21 will see a trip to the GABBA being made as they take on Brisbane. Carlton has a good record against teams in the hunt for the spots, except against the Lions.
The big question will be asked of their backline, and who will do the jobs against Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw. With no real stars in defence, it will be a difficult assignment in shutting them down.
Fevola will be asked to step up, but as he approaches the magic 100-goal mark, more pressure will be applied to him by the opposition, as they do not want to be the team he kicks it against.
Hawthorn will be the Blues’ final test of character. Having already secured their position on the ladder weeks ago, the Hawks already know who their opposition will be once September comes around.
Their mind may not be focused on their job at hand, but beyond. Lance Franklin will be close, if not over the 100-goal mark, and will chomping at the bit to shine before the finals begin.
Could Hawthorn put in a B-squad and rest some of their big names before the business-end of the season starts?
Will they go hard, like they have all year, and restrict Carlton to a miserly score whilst kick a big one themselves?
It will only be another three weeks until supporters of these four clubs will know their fate for 2008. The roller coaster ride is still going at full-tilt, and when it slows down, all be known.
Which way will it go?
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